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NOTE: The data displayed on this page (in the form of images) is not my own and is published here with permission from NOAA. I am in no way endorsed by or affiliated with NOAA or NWS. Click here to see their disclaimer.

Source: NOAA/NWS/NCEP GFS forecasts.

If the data below has the incorrect date, then the model might be updating or there is a problem with the model output.

The GFS model is a global numerical model and as a result has a relatively low resolution (~13km first 10 days and ~35km for forecasts beyond 10 days) and therefore cannot necessarily resolve small-scale features (e.g. small topographical effects or even thunderstorms) accurately. Because of this, rainfall totals beneath thunderstorms can sometimes be quite a bit higher than forecast by the model. Similarly, temperatures can be greatly affected by very small-scale wind flow patterns, either up or down mountain slopes.  Therefore, my suggestion is that the fields shown below should be used as a guideline for conditions that could be expected.



Rainfall Totals Forecast

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24hr Total Rainfall

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3 day Total Rainfall

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Forecasts beyond 3/4 can become very inaccurate and will influence rainfall totals.

7 Day Total Rainfall

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Temperature Forecast

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Maximum Temperature

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Click here for the below animation.

Minimum Temperature

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Rainfall Probabilities

NOTE: The GFS model in run multiple times, each time with slightly different input, the result is multiple different forecast from the same model. Each produces it’s own set of output from which the probabilities are calculated. So if 18 out of 20 runs show rainfall > 1mm the probability of rainfall exceeding that threshold will be 90%. This does not necessarily mean that there is a 90% chance of rain as the model might not always represent conditions well for a given area. Also, weather models can sometimes show rainfall either a few hours before (or after) it actually occurs.

6hr 1mm Rainfall Probability

Click here for the 6hr 10mm animation.


Click here for the below animation.

24hr 5mm rainfall Probability

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24hr 25mm Probability

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7day 50mm Rainfall Probability

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7day 100mm Rainfall Probability

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7day 200mm Rainfall Probability

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